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⚾️📈 #MLBMA 2025 Fantasy Baseball Write-Ups ADP 21-25 are LIVE! 📈⚾️
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⚾️📈 #MLBMA 2025 Fantasy Baseball Write-Ups ADP 21-25 are LIVE! 📈⚾️

By the reigning back-to-back FSWA winner-- "When you work this hard, winning feels a lot less like luck"

Feb 04, 2025
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John’s Substack
John’s Substack
⚾️📈 #MLBMA 2025 Fantasy Baseball Write-Ups ADP 21-25 are LIVE! 📈⚾️
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AVAILABLE AT #MLBMA 2025 RIGHT NOW (ADDING DAILY UNTIL OPENING DAY)

⚾ Individual Hitter + SP Advanced Data Sheets are LIVE at the link below (Simply request access)

⚾*NEW* Uploadable, color-coded Underdog Best Ball Ranks (Data sheet)

⚾Underdog-specific Best Ball Hitter Projections (Total Pts + Pts/Plate Appearance)

⚾TOP 125 Starting Pitchers (Data sheet)

⚾Catcher, First Base and Second Base Ranks (Data sheet)

⚾ “Playing Time” Tab Added — All 32 Teams complete daily batting lineups with SP handedness to identify benchings or inconsistencies in playing time. Use the ‘filter’ key to separate by team, and away you go!

⚾ Detailed Write-ups On Top-25 ADP — adding 5 players every couple days until Opening Day

⚾ Sortable Fantasy ADP (w/min and max picks)

⚾ 2024 Fantasy Player Rater

⚾Available to subs for keeper/roster questions 24/7

⚾ CORKED STATS Team Preview Podcast Series: Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels are up. I’ll continue adding these every few days, 100% FREE FOR EVERYONE ON SPOTIFY OR APPLE PODCASTS

- Transactions

- Projected Lineup / Rotation

- Stat Walkthrough For Entire Team

- Favorite Draft Values At ADP

📅 Today’s Write-ups, ADP 21-25

  • Jarren Duran, BOS

  • William Contreras, MLW

  • Freddie Freeman, LAD

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY

  • Trea Turner, PHI

Like any good dealer, the first one’s always on me…

#21. Jarren Duran, BOS, OF — (735 PA; .285 BA, 111 R, 75 RBI, 21 HR, 34 SB)

We were all over Jarren Duran last season, anticipating a monster fantasy breakout at cost — and the 28-year-old outfielder did not disappoint. Starting as Boston’s Opening Day leadoff hitter, Duran held down the spot throughout 2024 by combining a strong plate approach (21.8%K:7.3%BB, 31.2% O-Swing) with top-tier contact skills (88.7% Zone-contact) and 96th-percentile sprint speed to finish as fantasy baseball’s 16th-overall player. No denying he paid the bills in 2024 — but like they say, yesterday’s price is not today’s price…

So when we currently see Jarren going around pick 20, it may appear to be a potential value on the surface. However, I’m struggling to call for a repeat—it feels like paying for a ceiling outcome without proper underpinning stats to validate it.

For starters, Duran led the league in plate appearances, and even the loftiest projections call for a minimum 10% reduction in PAs. Similar to the other top-25 players I’m not particularly hot on, Jarren’s not going to kill you. His lineup spot’s safe and the combination of speed plus contact should deliver triple-digit runs with steals in the high twenties. That said, every single projection system has him improving on his power output on a per-PA basis—and that’s where you lose me. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard (43.7% Hard Hit), put it in the air (35.2% Flyball), pop in the advanced power baskets (9.1% Barrel, .364 xwOBAcon), or elevate pulled batted ball events (6.9% PFBLD). Not great, Bob.

Given the premium 2nd-round price, availability of mid-round steals, and the fact he’s entering his age 29 season, I think what you see is what you get. I’m going to have to say thanks but no thanks on Duran for 2025.

APPRECIATE EVERY ONE OF YOU, THANKS FOR THE SUPPORT - I WILL NEVER STOP WORKING FOR YOU!

HOW MUCH OF YOUR TIME IS WORTH TWO BUCKS A WEEK?

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