⚾️📈 #MLBMA 2025 Fantasy Baseball Write-Ups ADP 21-25 are LIVE! 📈⚾️
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📅 Today’s Write-ups, ADP 21-25
Jarren Duran, BOS
William Contreras, MLW
Freddie Freeman, LAD
Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY
Trea Turner, PHI
Like any good dealer, the first one’s always on me…
#21. Jarren Duran, BOS, OF — (735 PA; .285 BA, 111 R, 75 RBI, 21 HR, 34 SB)
We were all over Jarren Duran last season, anticipating a monster fantasy breakout at cost — and the 28-year-old outfielder did not disappoint. Starting as Boston’s Opening Day leadoff hitter, Duran held down the spot throughout 2024 by combining a strong plate approach (21.8%K:7.3%BB, 31.2% O-Swing) with top-tier contact skills (88.7% Zone-contact) and 96th-percentile sprint speed to finish as fantasy baseball’s 16th-overall player. No denying he paid the bills in 2024 — but like they say, yesterday’s price is not today’s price…
So when we currently see Jarren going around pick 20, it may appear to be a potential value on the surface. However, I’m struggling to call for a repeat—it feels like paying for a ceiling outcome without proper underpinning stats to validate it.
For starters, Duran led the league in plate appearances, and even the loftiest projections call for a minimum 10% reduction in PAs. Similar to the other top-25 players I’m not particularly hot on, Jarren’s not going to kill you. His lineup spot’s safe and the combination of speed plus contact should deliver triple-digit runs with steals in the high twenties. That said, every single projection system has him improving on his power output on a per-PA basis—and that’s where you lose me. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard (43.7% Hard Hit), put it in the air (35.2% Flyball), pop in the advanced power baskets (9.1% Barrel, .364 xwOBAcon), or elevate pulled batted ball events (6.9% PFBLD). Not great, Bob.
Given the premium 2nd-round price, availability of mid-round steals, and the fact he’s entering his age 29 season, I think what you see is what you get. I’m going to have to say thanks but no thanks on Duran for 2025.