⚾️📈 #MLBMA 2025 Fantasy Baseball Write-Ups ADP 31-35 are LIVE! 📈⚾️
By the reigning back-to-back FSWA winner-- "When you work this hard, winning feels a lot less like luck"
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📅 Today’s Write-ups, ADP 31-35
Austin Riley, ATL, 3B
Emmanuel Clase, CLE, RP
Chris Sale, ATL, P
Rafael Devers, BOS, 3B
Michael Harris II, ATL, OF
Like any good dealer, the first one’s always on me…
#31. Austin Riley, ATL, 3B — (469 PA; .256 BA, 63 R, 56 RBI, 19 HR, 0 SB)
✅✅ MY GUY ✅✅
Lots of talk in the podcast sphere about positional depth at 3B and drafters’ ability to wait for similar output from the middle rounds. While he hasn’t necessarily been called out by name, I hope that classification isn’t being applied to my boy Austin Riley. Atlanta’s 6”3” 240 lb. third baseman belongs in the conversation with the very best hitters in the game—not only does he mash within a top-tier lineup, there’s a chance for a plus batting average at max PAs.
If Riley’s being punished for failing to reach +600 PAs for the first time in four years, so be it. I couldn’t care any less—he took a +97 mph heater from LAA’s Jack Kochanowicz to the hand, derailing his season in late August. Plenty of time’s passed for healing and these HBP-induced injuries are always one of the easiest places to buy low for the upcoming season.
Remember, Riley’s just now entering his age-27 season, the prime-power portion of his career. Yes, we could (and I fully expect to) see him build off an incredible four-year 600 PA pace (.280 BA, 86 R, 84 RBI, 30 HR, 1 SB). Austin mans the hot corner every single day for the Bravos and frankly, I’ve been on him for years since refining his approach after his rookie campaign—he’s cut his strikeout and chase rates by at least ten points while simultaneously adding to his zone contact annually. Give me ALL the positive skills exchange.
Last year’s .256 BA came in lower than projected on a four-year BABIP low but easily could’ve been corrected, given the missing time. Despite obviously not being a burner on the bases (you can expect 0-1 SB), a 66th-percentile sprint speed would suggest he’s also not a total slug—but I’m really buying into a BA bounce-back because of the elite launch angle tightness (27.1° sd[LA]). Few pop-ups plus few grounders generally mean a sustainable, flat swing plane.
Not to get into conspiracies regarding the ball’s construction (I usually attribute year-over-year differences to the disparity in treatment regarding humidors) but Riley’s on a short list of players with +40 HR potential regardless. Even in a “down year”, the underlying power metrics were pure sex in a tight dress, up there with the very best—(53.7% Hard Hit, 14.9% Barrel, .440 xwOBAcon, 12.4% Pulled FBLD). Plus, he’s surrounded by talent with nowhere for opposing pitchers to turn. And he’s fallen into the third round where you should easily be able to compensate for the missing steals with your first two selections.
Austin Riley’s once again a top-15 pick next year—enjoy the discount.