🏈 #NFLMA Custom Cost-Per-Point Betting Analysis! 🏈

From back-to-back 2022-2023 FSWA winner... me!

My weekly series from BettingPros last season will be exclusively found right here on Substack included for the same $2/week

From that series: A Brief Introduction To Cost Per Point Analysis

In the coming weeks, I promise to expand on the history, working theory, and application of this work. For now, the long and short of it is simple: Pricing in betting markets isn’t currently standardized, therefore creating an immediate benefit in doing cost analysis. Every game yields a unique result, and serious bettors recognize the worth of better understanding this NFL pricing mechanism. Too often, touts and recreational bettors alike instinctively run to wager against the spread without proper due diligence. I’ll be visualizing this theory for you weekly by charting Draftkings Sportsbook lines using a (-110) price as a standard against the spread. This intuitive and even simple method will highlight when it’s advantageous to bet to cover or instead play for the outright win.

Think of it this way. I’m going to do my best to stop you from paying for points you shouldn’t.

Remember, every wager is a transaction, and the goal is attaining the best price. I briefly outlined how using cost-per-point analysis can help identify value on the betting board, but that’s not all. I’ve also found tracking money line moves on these identified outliers can act as a leading indicator for final line shifts heading into the weekend. The anticipatory theory here is akin to reading the tape in trading markets during periods of flux. If you’re the first to identify value in a market presumed to be razor sharp, the general public’s actions will eventually lag your own—the definition of value creation.

You still need to do your own analysis in choosing which side to wager. This chart is not the who but the how. It will help you maximize profit on your wins while avoiding unforced valuation errors.

Using the handy-dandy chart below and this key above helped me maximize my profits betting NFL straight

— BOOKMARK THE NEW #NFLMA LINK BELOW, WILL UPDATE ADVANCED DATA CONSTANTLY

GOOD LUCK LETS FUCKING GO!